Hobbyist / Statistical Forecaster

1\. Role Overview

Mercor is collaborating with a leading AI lab on a research project aimed at advancing machine reasoning and predictive accuracy. We’re seeking independent forecasters—particularly those active in forecasting competitions and marketplaces—to generate high-quality predictions across domains like economics, finance, and geopolitics. This is a unique opportunity to apply your statistical intuition and forecasting experience toward improving next-generation AI systems. 2\. Key Responsibilities - Produce structured, probabilistic forecasts across diverse domains - Clearly articulate forecasting logic, assumptions, and data inputs - Draw on models, heuristics, and statistical reasoning to inform predictions - Collaborate with a global network of forecasters and AI researchers - Provide feedback on prompt quality, resolution criteria, and forecast design 3\. Ideal Qualifications - Active participation in forecasting platforms (e.g., Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi, Numerai, Kaggle) - High leaderboard placement or notable tournament track record - Strong statistical reasoning and ability to work with probabilistic frameworks - Comfortable documenting thought processes and communicating clearly in writing - Self-driven and intellectually curious 4\. More About the Opportunity - Remote and asynchronous — work on your own schedule - Expected commitment : ~10–20 hours / week 5\. Compensation & Contract Terms - $105–140 / hour for U.S.-based applicants - You’ll be classified as an independent contractor 6\. Application Process - Submit your Mercor profile or resume to get started - You’ll complete a brief form and may be asked to complete a sample forecast - We’ll follow up within a few days with next steps 7\. About Mercor - Mercor is a talent marketplace that connects top experts with leading AI labs and research organizations - Our investors include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Adam D’Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey - Thousands of professionals across domains like law, creatives, engineering, and research have joined Mercor to work on frontier projects shaping the next era of AI