## About the work We are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment. This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events. ## What you will do - Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff - Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds - Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact - Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard ## Who we are looking for - A senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst - A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds — not retrospective commentary - Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis - Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance Backgrounds we look at first: top national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, senior analytics teams from presidential, Senate or governor races, and political-risk desks at leading banks, funds, or firms such as Eurasia Group and EIU. Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement — direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies. ## Not a fit Pure communications, journalism, or academic profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment. ## Point-in-time discipline Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.
Remote Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk - AI Trainer ($150-$250 per hour) • Carmel, Indiana, US
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